Published: Sat, January 06, 2018
Markets | By Noel Gibbs

GDP growth may sink to 6.5%

GDP growth may sink to 6.5%

"The per capita net national income during 2017-18 is estimated to be Rs 1,11,782 showing a rise of 8.3 per cent as compared to Rs 1,03,219 during 2016-17 with the growth rate of 9.7 per cent", said CSO.

"Implicit calculation suggests H2 FY18 growth will be 7%", chief statistician T C A Anant told a news conference as he presented an analysis of the first advance estimates of national income for 2017-18.

The Central Statistics Office has revealed some estimates on Friday predicting that the gross domestic product (GDP) of Indian economy will grow at 6.5 percent in this fiscal year (2017-18).

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While the latest CSO estimates project private final consumption expenditure, a proxy for household spending, growing by 6.3% in 2017-18, down from 8.7% in the previous year, gross fixed capital formation - a key investment metric - is expected to accelerate to 4.5%, from 2.4% in 2016-17.

According to CSO, GVA is expected to grow at 6.1% during FY2017-18 against 6.6% in FY2016-17 at basic constant prices of 2011-12.

The Indian economy is forecast to grow at its slowest in four years in FY18 but is expected to pick up pace in the second half of the year. As the numerator swells and the denominator (GDP at current prices) shrinks, the fiscal deficit is likely to overshoot the target of 3.2 per cent in 2017-18 by a considerable margin. Most economists have projected India's GDP growth to remain in the range of 6.5-6.8% in 2017-18, given that the economy is yet to fully recover from the twin policy blow of demonetisation and hasty implementation of the goods and services tax (GST).

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"Agriculture growth rate slips to 2.1 per cent from 4.5 per cent past year".

These will be the first official full-year growth estimates after GST's rollout. "For FY 2018 as a whole, we continue to expect GVA and GDP growth to print at 6.5% and 6.7%, respectively, higher than the advance estimates of 6.1% and 6.5%", she said.

The EAC-PM Chairman said the advance estimate numbers only reinforce what was already known - that reforms undertaken by the government will place the economy on an upward growth trajectory, without compromising on fiscal consolidation. The second instalment of the Economic Survey released in August past year had seen growth at the lower end of the 6.75-7.5% range forecast in February. However, the CSO will have factory output data for just one additional month of October for its full-year GDP projection compared to what it had till the second quarter (July-September).

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"Accordingly, the advance estimates for GDP and GVA growth appear to be understating economic expansion for FY2018, in our view", Nayar said.

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