Published: Wed, November 15, 2017
Markets | By Noel Gibbs

Oil steady, tempered by caution over rising United States output

Oil steady, tempered by caution over rising United States output

It is certainly true in the passenger vehicle segment and in power generation, but it is not true in the other two elements of oil demand: "transportation and petrochemicals".

Oil-dependent Venezuela's crude output dipped last month below 2 million barrels per day, its lowest level in almost three decades, global producer group Opec said on Monday.

The Paris-based IEA revised demand growth down by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) for both 2017 and 2018, for an increase of around 1.5m bpd this year, to 97.7m bpd, and 1.3m next, to 98.9m bpd, which could push the market back into a surplus in the first half of next year.

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"Oil is already facing stiff competition from ever-cheaper and more environmentally friendly energy sources as traditional fossil fuel users switch to cleaner, low-carbon alternatives", IEA said in its World Energy Outlook 2018.

Under the IEA's New Policies Scenario, based on existing legislation and announced policy intentions relative to emissions and climate change, the oil price should continue to rise toward $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s.

"With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world's consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil", the IEA report stated. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' latest monthly data showed Venezuela reporting production of 1.955 million bpd in October, versus 2.085 million in September.

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In Abu Dhabi on Monday, the UAE Minister of Energy and Industry Suhail bin Mohammed Faraj Faris Al Mazrouei, said that oil producers were expected to unanimously extend a production cut accord later this month, but its duration was still under discussion.

After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday. It expects global demand for oil to even rise in the decades ahead. The IEA estimates that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, from closer to 2 million now.

The International Energy Agency on Tuesday delivered a more cautious outlook for oil demand. "Electric vehicles are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs, but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil as growth for trucks, aviation, petrochemicals, shipping, and aviation keep pushing demand higher".

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Also weighing on the oil price, is the increasing prospect of a slower pace of economic growth in China.

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