Published: Fri, November 10, 2017
Markets | By Noel Gibbs

European Commission upgrades GDP growth forecast for Poland

European Commission upgrades GDP growth forecast for Poland

The 19-member eurozone is expected to grow at its fastest pace in a decade this year, with gross domestic product growth beating forecasts and projected to reach 2.2%, well outpacing the United Kingdom, according to a European Commission report released on Thursday. The EC put Hungary's GDP growth in 2019 at 3.1%, according to MTI.

The Spanish deficit could fall to 3.1 percent of GDP this year, down from 4.5 percent in 2016, and the Commission expects it will continue to shrink to 2.4 percent in 2018 and 1.7 percent in 2019.

Brussels' latest set of economic forecasts project that the Turkish economy will grow 5.3 percent in 2017, up from the union's previous estimate of 3 percent in May.

"After five years of moderate recovery, European growth has now accelerated".

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The report noted growth of private consumption was expected to increase towards the end of this year and continue its expansion in 2018-19.

The main reasons for this are positive macroeconomic and labour market conditions, high consumer demand and corporate profits, and money earned through Malta's citizenship scheme.

"GDP growth is projected to remain robust over the forecast horizon but the pace is expected to moderate slightly", the commission says. Our policies need to remain firmly focused on making growth sustainable and inclusive.

The commission said the eurozone had enjoyed its best year since the start of the financial crisis a decade ago, having shaken off the debt crisis that gripped the region a couple of years ago. This is a result both of a good performance of the economy in the first half of the year and an upward revision to 2016's GDP growth rate.Domestic demand is the engine of growth in 2017, and is expected to remain so for the entire period, backed by strong performance of private and public consumption and a recovery in investment.

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"Investment is also picking up amid favorable financing conditions and considerably brightened economic sentiment as uncertainty has faded", it added.

Pierre Moscovici, the European Union commissioner for economic and financial affairs, said: "We have entered a new phase of the economic recovery, with stronger growth driven by resilient consumption, the global upswing, loose financing conditions and falling unemployment". Wage dynamics are still constrained and inflation dampened because of slow productivity growth and a slack in the labour market.

Unit labour costs are projected to rise faster than the euro-area average in 2018 and 2019.

Despite the pick up in growth, Europe's unemployment rate is expected to be 8.5% next year - double the rate in the UK.

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The current account surplus is forecast to be close to 10% of GDP for 2017, pushed by strong growth in exports, especially service, and a drop in imports related to the contraction in investment.

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