Published: Fri, October 13, 2017
Global News | By Stacy Ballard

Murphy: Pulling Out Of Iran Deal Makes North Korea Agreement Harder

Murphy: Pulling Out Of Iran Deal Makes North Korea Agreement Harder

US President Donald Trump, who has been threatening to "decertify" the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, is expected to make an announcement on the issue on Friday (13 October), Republican lawmakers briefed by White House national security adviser HR McMaster on Wednesday said. He also must decide whether the deal is still in the national interest of the U.S. Trump said Wednesday he will announce his decision "very soon", without specifying what that decision is or when it would come. "We thought it was the wrong decision", Cardin told reporters recently.

What follows after de-certification of deal?

The EU foreign policy chief discussed the possibility of continuation of the Iran deal even if Trump chooses to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

This is not part of the deal itself, but a requirement that was put into place by Congress after they failed to ratify the agreement as a treaty.

Republicans have complained that the deal delays Iran's nuclear ambitions but could allow Iran to resume its nuclear program after certain restrictions expire. The route Mr. Trump wants to take to do so is by de-certifying the deal, which he may do next week.

Political observers have warned that any unilateral action by the United States based on unsupported claims of Iranian non-compliance would isolate Washington, impede future efforts for other nonproliferation agreements in the broader worldwide community and increase the likelihood of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Since taking office, the Trump administration has also signed multiple waivers for nuclear sanctions against Iran.

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Even so, some experts told CNBC that decertification will undermine the worldwide deal and encourage hardliners in Tehran to push for nuclear weapons.

The deal, which gave Iran relief from economic sanctions in return for constraints on its nuclear program took effect in January 2016. Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas, are wary of decertification because it would constitute a "material breach" of the agreement and could destroy it.

If Trump decertifies the agreement, Congress will have 60 days in which it can reimpose economic sanctions on Iran.

Senior U.S. officials, European allies and prominent U.S. lawmakers have told Trump that refusing to certify the deal would leave the U.S. isolated. Iran has said it may exit the deal if the USA withdraws.

If, as USA media predicts, he does not certify the accord, Congress will then decide whether to re-impose sanctions. "We may have to array our forces to prepare for. calibrated strikes".

Iran has said it is open in principle to further discussions, particularly with Europe, but has said its missile programme is non-negotiable.

The certification would also demand that the intelligence community produce judgments on a wide range of Iranian behaviour that is not covered by the nuclear deal, including ballistic missile testing and development, support for Lebanon's Hezbollah movement and Syrian President Bashar Assad and threats to Israel and the Mideast more broadly, according to the drafts. French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed concern about Iran's ballistic missiles and the "sunset" provisions as well. However, "as flawed as the deal is, I believe we must now enforce the hell out of it", and make sure inspectors have better access to possible nuclear sites, he said.

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"There is no technical nor political space to renegotiate this deal", Federica Mogherini, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, told PBS Wednesday.

How would the European Union and Iran react to a possible USA withdrawal? That could include Iran pulling out of the deal as well and restarting uranium enrichment activities, or Iran could stay in the deal and try to drive a wedge between the USA and its allies.

What is Trump expected to say or do about the deal?

Trump will use an executive order to declare Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organisation.

The Europeans seem more inclined to try to "build" on the deal in this way.

But it could be hard to get both Iran and its ally, Russia, back to the table for a new round of talks.

Trump has called the accord "an embarrassment" and "the worst deal ever".

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