Published: Tue, June 06, 2017
Global News | By Stacy Ballard

Pound tumbles amid fears of hung parliament — FX Focus

Pound tumbles amid fears of hung parliament — FX Focus

Foreign exchange markets have made a decision to shrug off a now infamous YouGov survey which indicated a hung parliament is the most likely outcome from the June 8th poll.

One shock analysis reckons the Tories could not only fail to add meaningfully to their majority, but lose it altogether.

Despite the caveats on the poll, the pound fell immediately against the dollar and euro when the Times' report was released late on Tuesday evening.

YouGov chief executive, Stephan Shakespeare, told The Times: "The data suggests that there is churn on all fronts, with the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to both lose and gain seats". This is a far cry from the nearly unanimous assumption of a Tory majority.

The PA poll of polls puts the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 35%, the Lib Dems on 8%, UKIP on 4% and the Greens on 2%.

Just under a third - 30 per cent of people say they would prefer the Labour leader as prime minister to 43 per cent backing May.

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According to most analysts, yes.

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'This makes the outcome even harder to predict, and makes it difficult to price in the potential impact from the election result ahead of time.

The referendum somehow seems a lot more than a year ago, and some of the debates that erupted back then seem a little exhausted too.

That's a good question.

The Pound has fluctuated between gains and losses over the past 24 hours, buffeted by conflicting projections on the result of the general election next week.

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The FTSE 100 index climbed 0.3% to end at 7,543.77, helped by the pound's woes after another election poll showed a drop in support for Theresa May's governing Conservative Party.

On average, nine polls conducted during the last seven days have put the Conservative lead at just 9 points.

A bad night could see the Conservatives plummet to 274 seats. It's now much more plausible that Labour might be elected, which doesn't appear to be spooking traders as much as some thought it might. "We all got it wrong in 2015 and we are all trying different methods to get it right this year", said Anthony Wells, a research director at YouGov.

Moreover, Jeremy Corbyn's manifesto promise to scrap tuition fees from this Autumn has attracted a surge support from young people.

If the YouGov model turns out to be accurate, May would be well short of the 326 seats needed to form a government tasked with the complicated talks, due to start shortly after the election, on Britain's divorce from the European Union.

"The pound has managed to hold up fairly well despite another poll showing a narrow lead for the Conservative Party, as the focus returns to the United Kingdom economy", said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, in a note.

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